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July 31, 2005

Deadline Day

Apparently Jody Gerut was turned around and shipped to Pittsburgh for Matt Lawton.  An odd choice of deal since Lawton is not the impact player that the Cubs would need for a playoff push, but with today's still-in-progress drubbing at the hands of Arizona (way to lose three of four at home to a sub-.500 team), it's pretty obvious that the Cubs aren't going to the playoffs this year.  If it would have taken Felix Pie and Rich Hill to land Alfonso Soriano, it's just as well they didn't do it.  The Astros are doing their typical Astros thing; I'm not sure what's in the water down in Houston, but apparently it only gets added on July 1 every year.  With Houston around ten games over now and the Cubs about to drop to one game over with today's loss, it's time to start thinking about next year.

July 24, 2005

Cubs 8, Cardinals 4

Other things have occupied me for the past few days, but perhaps it's just as well; the Cubs playing terribly in the last two games of the Reds series, to merely earn a split when they had seemed in control, was painful.  However, taking two of three in a hard-fought battle with St. Louis - and in St. Louis, no less - is a little better.  Of course, there's plenty to suggest that this was luck - Prior gave up three home runs in the first inning of Sunday's game, but they were fortunately all solo shots; Henry Blanco, hitting well below .200 coming in, had four hits and two RBI; Neifi Perez hit the winning grand slam in the tenth - but if you can take two of three from the best team in the NL, that's good.  The question is, now, can the Cubs keep taking series from lesser teams?  They couldn't do it against Cincinnati, annoyingly - but at just two games over now, it needs to be done if they're going to win the wild card, and regularly.  Hendry needs to make a trade, and soon.

July 19, 2005

Cubs 7, Reds 3

The good: two more home runs for Aramis, who now has 24 on the year and 69 RBI after knocking in five.  That actually puts him into the top ten in the NL, while the homers put him into the top five (tied for fifth with Adam Dunn).  Now I'm wondering when the last time was - if it's ever happened - that two Cubs sluggers had seasons like Lee and Ramirez are having.  (Lee, by the way, went 3-for-5, and added two RBIs on a double in the fifth, tying Carlos Lee for the league lead with 77.  I'm also wondering how long it's been since someone led every Triple Crown category this late in the season.  Also, do they give you the Triple Crown if you're only tied for the lead in homers or RBI?)  Prior also had a decent game - 6.2, 8 Ks with only two walks, seven hits.  Even better, the bullpen didn't give up a run in 2.1 - in six games since the All-Star break, the bullpen has given up just a single run so far.  Upgrades?  What upgrades?  Another good thing: way to score with two outs in the third.  That's always nice to see.

The bad: Prior seemed to struggle at times.  I didn't get to watch the whole game, but I had the radio on just in time to hear him give up the two runs in the second, an inning which Pat Hughes rightly pointed out could have been a lot worse.  He worked out of a bit of a jam in the fifth as well, and seemed to get rattled if he got in trouble, needing to be calmed down by Blanco.  On the other hand, if you just look at his stat line there's not much to complain about (maybe the 108 pitches).

The other: Jody Gerut's first at-bat as a Cub... and he grounds into what should have been a double play, except that Joe Randa air-mailed the throw to second and everyone was safe.  The Cubs had the bases loaded and one out and couldn't score, but I guess in that situation they didn't really deserve to.  Take away those six and the cumulative LOB goes down to ten, which isn't all that bad.  So nice work there.

Meanwhile, Lee's up to .376 again, but what I find even more impressive is that his OPS is now at 1.185.  His .738 slugging percentage is 125 points higher than #2, Pujols'.  He now leads the majors in hits, is second (by one) in runs scored, is second (by one) in doubles, and leads in on-base percentage (though amazingly, only by 3 points over Nick Johnson - though Johnson has nearly 100 fewer at-bats).  And, of course, home runs.  And batting.  I don't know how long he can keep this up, but I'm really hoping he does.

Trade rumors: ESPN suggested that Hendry might be looking at Juan Pierre; Hendry denied doing any such thing, though it's hard to imagine why he wouldn't.  Pierre's having a down year, but in three of the last four he's racked up at least 200 hits.  Hendry should know what's up since Pierre killed the Cubs in '03, getting ten hits in 33 at-bats in the NLCS, including two triples.  He's also a base-stealing threat, getting at least 45 in each of the last four years, though he does get caught quite a bit (2004: 45 SB, 24 CS), which lowers that value.  Still, he plays center and is a proven leadoff commodity, and he would likely come on the cheap in a down year with the Marlins evidently looking to dump salaries.  The Cubs are apparently still looking at Austin Kearns as well, though the guy has never played a full season (career high 107 games in 2002; 64 last year).  He's been tearing it up at AAA Louisville, but if you look at his pro stats it's not obvious what his major asset would be.  I'd prefer a deal for a bigger name, though they may be hard to come by and of course I'd rather the farm system weren't totally plundered.

Also bear in mind that Nomar could be ready to come back in mid-to-late August, which would be like adding a bat for the final month assuming he can come back relatively healthy.  (He was serviceable, if not a superstar, in his 43-game tenure last year.)  Of course, I can think of safer assumptions.

July 18, 2005

The First Trade

Shortly after the Reds game, Hendry announced a trade between the Cubs and Indians that sent Jason Dubois - .239/7/22 in 52 games this year but currently in AAA - to Cleveland for - wait for it - Jody Gerut.

Jody Gerut positives: he could potentially be a leadoff guy.  He's not the fastest guy ever, but he can work a count and has more walks than Ks this year (18 to 14), and his OBP is .357, which doesn't set the world on fire but tops Hairston's.  He could fill a spot either in left or center (hopefully left, as I'd like to see Walker stay in the lineup as an everyday player, rather than having to platoon with Hairston again - either that or put Walker in left) and is, according to Hendry, "an above-average defender."

Jody Gerut negatives: he's coming off ACL surgery in the offseason.  He had a solid rookie year in 2003, but was mediocre last year.  He's only hitting .275 this year, though again, this tops Hairston.

Apparently Hendry's latest thing is bringing in Chicago boys (Gerut was born in Elmhurst, a near-west suburb for those of you not from around here).  I like this as an opening move, but I hope it's just the first of a few designed to get this club over the hump.

July 18, 2005

Cubs 9, Reds 4

Normally I would be happy to come home and see a score like this, but today I actually watched the whole game, and while it's nice to get the win, there were a number of obvious issues that could stand to be resolved if this club is really going to make a run at the wild card.  First of all, of the ten guys who came to the plate for the Cubs, not one failed to leave a man on base at some point during the game.  That, in and of itself, isn't the worst thing ever.  But how about some of these totals: Hairston, 4 LOB (1 RBI); Burnitz, 5 LOB (0 RBI); Perez, 4 LOB (0 RBI).  In total, the team left eight runners in scoring position with two outs, including two by Perez.

Yeah, the game started great, with seven runs in the first four innings thanks to five home runs (back to back by Walker and Lee in the first, then Lee and Ramirez doing the same in the third, then Walker hitting another in the fourth, followed by Lee walking and Ramirez doubling him in).  But after that not much went down; the Cubs only went down 1-2-3 once (the sixth), but nine hits in the last five innings yielded just two runs (one each in the eighth and ninth).  And Jerome Williams, after starting pretty strong, totally fell apart in the seventh as his pitch count got into the 90s.  It's a shame, because he nearly got through seven allowing just one run on four hits.  Then he hits LaRue, lets him get to second on a wild pitch, LaRue scores on a Lopez double, and then Aurilia homers.  Fortunately, the bullpen (Rusch for 1.2, then Novoa in the ninth) was perfect.  All in all, a decent win, but I'd like to see even more runs when the hits are piling up (18 tonight).

Thought: what about Matt Murton in the leadoff spot?  Hear me out.  Hairston's OBP is .347, which isn't terrible, but if you go down a list of leadoff hitters in the NL, I think it's in the lower half.  Hairston's speed is decent, but he would seem to be bad at stealing bases (6 swiped but 8 CS), which is something you'd like to see from your leadoff guy.  I don't know about Murton on the basepaths (we haven't had much chance to see him), but he's clearly quick - he beat out two infield singles today, helping him go 4-for-5.  In seven games, he's now 7-for-17 with two walks.  He would also fill a hole in left field (I like Todd Hollandsworth, but I don't know about him starting every day).  He's a rookie, yes, but Houston has a rookie in the leadoff spot and it's worked okay for them.  It could be worth a game or two trial, at any rate - Hairston's not exactly on fire (aside from the grand slam, he was nowhere to be found in the Pirates series), so it isn't going to kill anyone to swap him down to sixth or so and give Murton a shot.  But hey, what do I know.

One more thing: I've been thinking about possible trade options recently, and with the Reds having too many outfielders, they were one avenue.  Among those currently with the club (Austin Kearns still down in AAA and apparently not going anywhere), Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena were potential choices.  Tonight's game?  Dunn goes 0-for-4 with two Ks to drop his average under .240; Pena goes 1-for-4 with a K.  Of course, the Reds might not trade within the division anyway.

July 18, 2005

It's not often that I feel truly inspired by dreams of mine.  Usually they make no sense.  Last night, however, was different.  Last night I had a dream that the Cubs won the NLCS and were going to the World Series.  I spent most of the 2003 NLCS wondering how exactly I would react if the Cubs won or, heaven forbid, won it all.  (Of course, I never got to find out, though I did find out how I dealt with the crippling disappointment I was too young to legitimately experience in 1984: mostly, complete numbness.)  This dream answered the question for me.  In it, I was jumping up and down, half-laughing and half-crying, as though I had no control over my movement or emotions.

I don't know if that's how I'll truly react if and when the Cubs win the NLCS or the World Series.  I can't recall ever having significant emotional reactions to wins by either the Bulls or the Devils, teams of mine that did plenty of winning during my childhood.  Obviously there is a difference; by the time I was really old enough to appreciate championships, the Bulls had already won three and the Devils were a year shy of winning their first.  (1994, oddly enough the one season in which baseball did not have playoffs, is the first time I can really remember paying very close attention to a team's playoff run; in this case, it was the Devils, who fell to the Rangers in a conference final that still causes me pain.)  The Cubs, on the other hand, have been to the playoffs four times in my lifetime and on only one occasion have they won more than two games there.  They haven't been to the World Series in my dad's lifetime.  They haven't won in my grandfather's lifetime.  And yet Cubs fandom gets passed down from generation to generation, like some sort of genetic defect.  My girlfriend is a Cubs fan too.  My children will be Cubs fans, unless they consciously rebel.

So what would I do if the Cubs won?  It occurs to me that my connection with the Cubs has at times been fairly loose.  They've always been my favorite team (not just in baseball but in any sport, as baseball has always held precedence), but I grew up on the East Coast and so rarely got to see them play.  Even now, living just three blocks from Wrigley Field, I have not been to a game in several years, though I can pin the blame for this on being a recent college graduate still looking for consistent employment.  I smile when they win and grimace when they lose, but am I really connected to the team in any major way?  Does my lifelong commitment but failure to attend games, and frequently failure even to watch them (often due to superstitious reasons), make me less of a fan than someone who cares less whether they win or lose but goes to Wrigley on a weekly basis?  I honestly don't have an answer.

Thus, spurred on by my questioning of my own fanatic status, my dream of the team's glory, and my desire to overcome the trappings of superstition that keep me from watching most games, I have commenced keeping this diary.  In it, I will make daily notes on the Cubs: what I saw or heard of the game, my feelings about it and the team in general, my opinions on any moves made or not made to improve the squad, what have you.  I hope it will prove at least passably interesting to anyone who happens to wander in.  I know many readers of my site are Cubs fans as well; at the very least, we should all be able to commisserate.